How the Election Forecasts Work

How the Election Forecasts WorkHow Hegemon's election forecasts are built: the signals, the weights, the simulations, past misses and the public ledger where every call is scored.Election Center

2026 Midterm Election Forecast: House and Senate: Our forecast for the 3 November 2026 U.S. midterms: House, Senate and 36 governors, race by race, beside the betting markets, and what it means for business.

Israel Election 2026 Forecast: Knesset Seats: Israel's 27 October 2026 Knesset election: our seat forecast for every list, the coalitions that reach 61, the prime minister race and the business impact.

Brazil Election 2026: Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro: Brazil's 2026 presidential runoff, Lula against Flávio Bolsonaro: our forecast beside the polls and markets, the state map, the count and the business impact.

Serbia Election 2026: Forecast and Count: Serbia's 25 October 2026 snap election, the Student List against Vučić's coalition: our forecast, the count and what the result means for business.

Bulgaria Election 2026: Presidential Runoff: Bulgaria's 2026 presidential election: the first round on 25 October, our forecast for the 1 November runoff, the count and what the result means for business.

New Zealand Election 2026 Forecast: New Zealand's 7 November 2026 general election: our seat forecast for every party, which side forms the government, the polls and what it means for business.

Spain Election 2026 Forecast: Can PP and Vox Win?: Spain's 29 November 2026 general election: our seat forecast, the chance that PP and Vox win a majority, the polls and what the result means for business.

Elections and Supply Chains: Trade Exposure: How each election we forecast reaches plants, ports, mines and energy sites: trade and supply chain exposure under every result, for risk and continuity teams.

Election Center overview

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